The Republicans are projected to keep control of the Senate but the Democrats are favoured to win the House and the majority of Governor races.

By Daniel Herborn


Posted on November 5, 2018

The final NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll before the 6 November election found 50% of likely voters favoured Democratic control of Congress to 43% support for Republican control.

The poll was conducted between 1 and 3 November and found that among registered voters, the Democrats hold a lead of 6%.

Trump on the mid-term elections: “I’ll just figure it out”

Support for the Democratic party was especially strong among African-Americans who were polled (84% of likely African-American voters prefer a Democrat-controlled Congress) and Latinos (57%).

White men with no college degree were the demographic most likely to support the Republicans, with 60% of likely voters in this group preferring Republican control of Congress.

Interest in these mid-term elections is at historic highs, with 75% of likely voters rating their interest level at 10/10. Four years ago, this number was only at 44% and in 2010, 52% of registered voters placed their interest at 10/10.

Trump’s approval and disapproval ratings have largely remained stable. 52% of poll respondents said they strongly disapprove of the job Trump is doing (with 46% strongly disapproving), while 46% saying they approve of the job he is doing.

A Kaiser Family Foundation (KFF) poll found that voters’ support for, or opposition to, President Trump was a major factor in how 66% of survey respondents would vote at the mid-term elections.

A slightly earlier poll, conducted by ABC News and The Washington Post from 29 October to 1 November, found 52% of respondents would choose a generic Democrat over a generic Republican for Congress, while 44% would choose a Republican.

Speaking at West Virginia, Trump acknowledged that the Democrats could claim control of the House.

“It could happen,” he said. “We’re doing very well, and we’re doing really well in the Senate, but could happen.

“And you know what you do? My whole life, you know what I say? ‘Don’t worry about it, I’ll just figure it out.”

Obama back on the campaign trail ahead of the US mid-term elections

Barack Obama has generally kept a low profile since he completed two terms as US President but has been highly visible as the mid-term elections draw closer.

In recent days, Obama has campaigned in two key gubernatorial races, supporting Andrew Gillum in Florida and former State House Minority Leader Stacey Abrams in Georgia.

One of the most closely-watched Senate races is taking place in Texas where high-profile incumbent Ted Cruz is being challenged by Democratic nominee Beto O’Rourke. The state traditionally votes with the Republican party but projections show O’Rourke is neck and neck with Cruz.

O’Rourke has proved a phenomenon, breaking fundraising records and attracting national media attention with his charistmatic approach. Even if he loses this Senate race, many expect him to be a contender for the Democratic presidential nomination as early as 2020.

Header image credit: Gage Skidmore