New booth-by-booth maps give the best picture yet of how Australians’ votes moved at the country’s weekend election.
And they suggest that the Coalition lost votes in most of the nation’s richest areas while winning votes in many lower income regions.
Rather than the rich rejecting Labor, the maps suggest that wealthier voters moved to them while lower income workers moved most strongly against them.
The maps lend support to the theory that Prime Minister Scott Morrison, the Coalition’s prime election spokesperson, was able to successfully connect with voters outside traditional Liberal territory.
The maps show Coalition swings in blue and Labor swings in red. Each dot represent an individual booth, with the size of the dot representing the size of the swing.
The author of the maps is Nathan Ruser, who works as a researcher with the Australian Strategic Policy Institute’s International Cyber Policy Centre. He compiled them from early Australian Electoral Commission data.
Like the AEC itself, Ruser cautions that the data is preliminary and incomplete; figures are not yet in for a number of booths and electorates.
The maps also do not include seats where a major-party candidate was battling an independent. Such seats include Warringah, the North Sydney seat where independent Zali Steggall beat former prime minister Tony Abbott, and Wentworth, the inner-city Sydney seat where independent Kerryn Phelps has lost narrowly to the Liberal Party’s Dave Sharma.
The map of Sydney, for instance, shows clear swings to the Coalition through the west and swings against it in the inner city, on the North Shore and in the northern beaches region.
The swings against the Coalition were enough to make seats like Warringah and Wentworth vulnerable to independents favouring action on climate change, but not enough to move higher income seats to Labor.
Victorian voters moved more heavily towards Labor, as shown in the map below – but the Coalition still obtained swings in Labor’s western stronghold, winning a 5% swing in the safe Labor seat of Fraser. Labor, meanwhile, obtained some of its biggest swings in seats such as Goldstein, which takes in pricey suburbs like Brighton.
Brisbane shows the same pattern, with high-income areas near the city centre moving towards Labor while areas further out moved to the Coalition.
The swings to the Coalition show up dramatically in this map of the Queensland coast up as far north as Townsville. Labor saw swings to it not only in Byron Bay but also on the Gold Coast.
Perth saw the same pattern, with more consistent swings to the Coalition the further away you went from the GPO.
In Adelaide the swings to the Coalition were evident in the prosperous inner north and also across the northern suburbs, including some of the city’s most industrial areas.
The island split, with parts of Hobart and the eastern seaboard moving towards Labor while the north moved to the Liberals.
The overall map of Australia reveals swings to the Coalition inland, but to Labor not just in city centres but across Victoria and on the south coast of NSW.
Maps courtesy Nathan Ruser.